The 49ers vs Falcons matchup on Sunday pits the NFC’s last unbeaten team against a desperate home underdog, as 6-0 San Francisco travels to Mercedes-Benz Stadium to face 2-4 Atlanta (1 p.m. ET, FOX).
The 49ers are 3.5-point favorites, but the story is their battered receiver room. Mike Evans is questionable after aggravating his Achilles on Monday night, Ricky Pearsall (knee), De’Zhaun Stribling (ankle) and Deebo Samuel (hamstring) are all sidelined — though Christian Kirk could return from injured reserve.
Still, San Francisco has Brock Purdy playing at an MVP level: he leads the NFL in QBR (85.8) and touchdown rate (8.2 percent), and the offense ranks seventh in pass rate over expectation despite the injuries.
Still, San Francisco has Brock Purdy playing at an MVP level: he leads the NFL in QBR (85.8) and touchdown rate (8.2 percent), and the offense ranks seventh in pass rate over expectation despite the injuries.
Falcons’ last stand?
Atlanta looked transformed in Michael Penix Jr.’s first two games back, then dropped two heartbreakers. At 2-4 and fading in the NFC South race, the Falcons need upset wins fast — and catching the 49ers at less than full strength might be their best shot.
The trends are mixed: Atlanta is 3-2 against the spread in the last five meetings, and the under has hit in the last three.
What to watch
Christian McCaffrey scored twice on the ground Monday and leads all backs with a 21.1 percent target share — expect a heavy dose with the receivers thin. George Kittle, averaging 65 receiving yards over his last five, is Purdy’s security blanket.
Win, and the 49ers head into their bye at 7-0. Lose, and the NFC West race gets very interesting.
The stakes favor urgency on both sides. San Francisco can head into its bye at a perfect 7-0, while Atlanta at 2-4 is running out of lives in the NFC South race. Brock Purdy’s MVP-level efficiency — leading the league in QBR at 85.8 and touchdown rate at 8.2 percent — has carried an offense that ranks seventh in pass rate over expectation despite the injuries. If Christian McCaffrey, who scored twice Monday and leads all backs with a 21.1 percent target share, gets rolling again, the Falcons could be in for a long afternoon.
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on FOX, with the unbeaten 49ers looking to make it seven straight.
