US mortgage rates are holding just above 7% after Friday’s hot jobs report, with Bankrate‘s national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.20% on Sunday morning.
Bankrate’s real-time average, based on its survey of lenders, stood at 7.20% as of 6:30 a.m. on Sunday, November 8, with the 30-year fixed FHA rate at 6.94%. The average rate for 30-year mortgages dropped to 7.26% this week in Bankrate’s weekly national survey of lenders. A separate tracker, MonitorBankRates, put its national 30-year fixed average at 7.17% as of November 7, with the best rates from individual lenders starting at 5.62% for first-time buyers.
The figures sit just above Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, which had the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.18% on Thursday, November 5 — down from 7.24% the week before, and the third straight weekly fall. The 15-year fixed rate was 6.57% in that survey, and Bankrate’s tracker puts it at 6.52% today. A daily tracker, Ask ROB, put the 30-year fixed rate lower still, at 7.12% on Sunday, down 0.08 percentage points over the week, with the 15-year at 6.52% and jumbo 30-year loans at 7.22%.
The jobs report changed the outlook
The survey published on Thursday came before Friday’s jobs report, which showed employers adding 165,000 jobs in October, far above the 65,000 expected. That report pushed traders to raise the odds of another Federal Reserve rate rise in December to about 75% to 80% — the CME FedWatch tool put it at 78.6% on Saturday, up from about 67% to 68% on Thursday — and daily rate sheets on Friday had the 30-year rate near 7.1% — suggesting the downward drift may not last.
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly told CNBC on Friday: “My expectation is we’re going to have to tighten policy further,” adding that inflation “has to be our number one priority” and that a solid labour market “gives us the latitude” to finish the job. Mortgage rates track 10-year Treasury yields, which eased after the US midterm elections but firmed again after the jobs data. The Mortgage Bankers Association expects the 30-year rate to average 7.3% in the final quarter of 2026 and to stay above 7% through 2027 — a reminder that, for now, the era of cheap mortgages is not coming back.
What it costs a buyer
For a buyer borrowing $400,000 over 30 years, the difference between 7.20% and the 6.22% of a year ago is roughly $260 a month — about $3,100 a year — which is why even small weekly moves matter to households weighing a purchase. Freddie Mac’s survey covers a sample of lenders across the country and is the benchmark most quoted by the industry, while Bankrate’s daily average reflects live lender quotes and moves faster.
Even at 7.20%, the rate remains well above the sub-3% levels of 2021 — but for buyers who have waited through two years of higher rates, three consecutive weekly falls are the first sustained improvement in months. Yet cheaper rates have not yet brought buyers back: in the week ending October 30, mortgage applications fell 1.2% even as the Mortgage Bankers Association’s 30-year rate dropped to 7.30%, its lowest since September and its third straight weekly fall. Purchase applications were down 2% on the week and 19% year on year, while refinancing was flat and 60% down on a year ago. The next big test comes on Tuesday, November 10, when the October consumer inflation report is published — the last inflation reading before the Federal Reserve’s December 8–9 meeting. A hot reading would strengthen the case for a December rise and could push mortgage rates higher; a cool one could yet stay the Fed’s hand.
