Spain election polls published on Tuesday put the conservative People’s Party ahead of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists, with Vox surging, 19 days before the general election on 29 November.
According to a DYM poll for 20minutos, published on 10 November, the PP would win the election with 33.1% of the vote and between 135 and 139 deputies. The PSOE would come second with 27.3% and between 104 and 108 seats, while Vox would reach 18.6% and between 63 and 66 representatives. Fieldwork was carried out between 4 and 6 November, after the resignation of Transport Minister Oscar Puente.
The PP and Vox together would gather 51.7% of the vote and a combined range of between 198 and 205 deputies, above the 176 needed for an absolute majority, according to the DYM poll reported by Democrata.
Polls disagree on the gap
Polls diverge sharply — a Reuters round-up on 9 November reported a SocioMetrica poll projecting around 200 seats for PP plus Vox, a 40dB poll for El Pais narrowing the PP–PSOE gap to two points, and a Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo putting the combined right on 199 seats; a separate SW Demoscopia poll put the PSOE first on 30.9% against 28.8% for the PP. The DYM figures above are one poll, not a consensus.
The weighted average of 14 institutes, published by Democrata on 10 November, puts the PP on 31.4%, the PSOE on 26.7% and Vox on 19.1%, with Frente Amplio on 6.3%. PolitPro’s weighted election trend as of 10 November puts the PP on 30%, the PSOE on 26.6% and Vox on 18.4%.
Vox has surged compared with 2023 and is polling near 19%, according to Particle News, while the left is fragmented, with Frente Amplio polling near 6% and Podemos marginal. Surveys report higher vote firmness on the right, with one poll finding about 58% of voters already decided and far greater turnout intent among PP and Vox supporters than among left-leaning blocs.
Campaign shaped by Urda
The electoral campaign, starting in four days, is expected to be dominated by housing, immigration and corruption, and by reverberations of last month’s deadly train crash that triggered Puente’s resignation, according to Reuters. The DYM report notes that the comparison between polls does not allow isolating the electoral effect of his departure or the Urda accident.
Sanchez brought the vote forward from 2027, and voters will elect 350 deputies on 29 November. The governing alliance of PSOE and Sumar would win just 40.6% of the seats in the PolitPro election trend — too few for a majority of its own. Whether the PP can govern will hinge on Vox, or on a PSOE abstention, according to Particle News.
Sources: Democrata / DYM for 20minutos, 10 Nov 2026; Reuters, 9 Nov 2026; PolitPro election trend, 10 Nov 2026; Particle News, 10 Nov 2026
