A new Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media survey finds the Texas Senate race is a genuine toss-up, with Democrat James Talarico on 48 percent and Republican Ken Paxton on 46 percent, while 1 percent back Libertarian Ted Brown and 5 percent are undecided.
When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Talarico’s support increases to 49 percent and Paxton’s to 48 percent, with Brown on 3 percent, according to the poll released this week. The survey was conducted October 17 to 19 among 1,000 likely voters, with a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
A slow, steady shift
Since August, Talarico’s support has slowly inched up by about a point each month, from 46 percent to 48 percent, while Paxton has hovered between 46 percent and 47 percent, said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
If support for the Libertarian candidate melts between now and Election Day, Paxton will likely see his vote share increase, Kimball said, because those third-party voters are primarily independents or Republicans. If it holds, Talarico benefits.
What Texas voters say matters most
The economy remains the top issue for a plurality of Texas voters at 39 percent, up three points from September, followed by immigration at 16 percent, threats to democracy at 13 percent and education at 12 percent, according to the survey.
Voters whose top issue is the economy split almost evenly between the leading Senate candidates, with 47 percent supporting Paxton and 46 percent supporting Talarico. A separate ActiVote poll conducted October 17 to 21 also found Talarico ahead by two points, reinforcing the picture of a race that could go either way on November 3.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in decades, which is why a close poll in the state draws national attention, but the Emerson survey still shows a race well within its margin of error. Both campaigns are therefore treating the final days as a turnout contest, with rallies, advertising and get-out-the-vote drives aimed less at persuading large numbers of new voters than at ensuring their existing supporters actually cast a ballot by November 3.
