October new-vehicle sales are expected to finish higher than last month and last year, with the seasonally adjusted annual rate holding near 16.1 million, according to Cox Automotive’s forecast released October 27. That is up from September’s 16 million pace and last October’s 15.7 million level. Sales volume is expected to reach about 1.38 million units, up 3.6% from September and 7.2% from last year, Cox said. October has 28 selling days, three more than last month and one more than last year, which lifts the total even though the sales pace historically slows in October.
Small vehicles lead growth
Six of the seven segments Cox tracks are projected to grow from last year, led by subcompact SUVs and crossovers at 120,000 units, up 17.6%, and compact cars at 95,000 units, up 15.6%. Healthy fleet sales, wealthier new-vehicle buyers and wider access to credit are keeping the market relatively strong, according to Jonathan Gregory, senior director of economic and industry insights at Cox. A separate joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData put the October pace slightly lower at 15.6 million, with total sales of 1,327,100 units, up 0.2% year over year after adjusting for selling days. Both forecasts agree on the broad picture: demand is resilient, but affordability remains a constraint.
Incentives do the heavy lifting
The average new-car incentive fell to $3,304 from $3,574 over the past month, though incentives remain up 13.1% from last October at around 6% of sticker price, according to J.D. Power data. Hybrid share climbed four percentage points from last year to 18.6%, while EVs held at almost 7% and traditional petrol vehicles at nearly 73%. Analysts said incentives are likely to play a decisive role for dealers through the rest of the year, with October results reflecting continued resilience rather than a boom. For buyers, the combination of steady sales and rising incentives means room to negotiate, particularly on slower-selling models. J.D. Power’s joint forecast with GlobalData adds detail on the retail side: retail sales are projected at 1,109,500 units, down 1.4% on a selling-day-adjusted basis but up 2.3% without the adjustment. The average transaction price is forecast at $46,329, down 0.1% year over year, while the average monthly payment is expected to rise 2.6% even as transaction prices dip — a reflection of higher interest rates, which J.D. Power puts at 6.81% on average.
Related: October Car Sales Hold at 15.6 Million Pace Despite High Prices
