New Zealand remains in a waiting game after Saturday’s general election, with no official result until 27 November and the outcome hanging on special votes.
No new count is expected before the official result is declared on 27 November. Until then, neither major party can claim victory, and the shape of the next government depends on votes cast outside ordinary polling booths.
A conflict over how many special votes
The number of special votes is itself disputed. The Electoral Commission has forecast about 700,000 special votes, according to RNZ, while Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has spoken of about 300,000 special votes to be counted. RNZ also reported that about 300,000 special votes were cast on election day itself, so the two figures may be counting different things — the total forecast and the election-day share. The count itself will settle the question.
Five electorates are under 500 votes, and 14 are under 1,000 votes, according to RNZ. In races that close, a small swing in special votes can reverse the election-night leader.
Too close to call
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has described the result as “too close to call,” while Labour leader Chris Hipkins has not conceded.
On the provisional figures, with 98.5 per cent counted, National and Labour each took 29.3 per cent of the party vote, according to RNZ. Labour claimed 35 seats, the Greens took 13.3 per cent for 16 seats, and the Opportunity party is set to enter Parliament for the first time.
That arithmetic is fragile. Special votes have historically favoured the left in New Zealand elections, and with five electorates under 500 votes, the final declaration on 27 November could still change both the electorate winners and the party-vote shares that determine the list seats.
Until then, coalition talks cannot be concluded, and neither Luxon nor Hipkins can form a government with certainty. The waiting game will last almost three more weeks. Final polls had put the rivals neck and neck, and election night did nothing to separate them.
