No bloc won a majority in Israel’s election last week, and that arithmetic has handed a historic role to the country’s Arab parties. The Israel coalition deadlock now turns on 19 seats held by three Arab-led parties — a bloc large enough to decide who governs, and controversial enough that neither main camp has yet agreed how to deal with it.
Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, while the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot won 48, according to the reported results. A coalition of Arab parties with Eisenkot would command 67 seats, a comfortable majority. But for many in Israel, the idea of siding with Arab parties remains politically sensitive, and Eisenkot has previously ruled out forming a coalition with Arab parties, according to reports.
The Joint List, led by Yousef Jabareen, secured 11 seats, while the more conservative Islamist party Ra’am, headed by Mansour Abbas, won eight, according to reports. Jabareen has expressed willingness to cooperate with opposition parties to remove Netanyahu, while Ra’am has indicated willingness to participate in an Eisenkot-led government. The Joint List, however, has said it does not intend to become part of a government while Israel continues its occupation of Palestinian territories in the West Bank, according to reports.
Netanyahu’s reported flexibility
Netanyahu has publicly denied plans for a unity government, but Israeli media reports on Monday said sources close to his Likud party had not ruled out an alliance with Eisenkot’s Yashar party, according to reports. That reported flexibility comes as Netanyahu’s bloc has fallen short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government independently. The reports do not establish that formal negotiations have begun or that an agreement has been reached.
Eisenkot has outlined conditions for any partnership involving Arab political representatives, including recognising Israel as a Jewish state, accepting military conscription requirements and condemning Hamas as a terrorist organisation, according to reports. Those conditions illustrate how difficult any cross-bloc deal would be to construct.
A week that will shape the outcome
President Isaac Herzog is scheduled to begin formal consultations with party leaders on Wednesday 4 November, according to reports. If those negotiations fail to produce a consensus, Israel could face prolonged instability, a caretaker government, or — in the worst case described by analysts — another election in 2027. The Arab parties’ 19 seats are the reason the deadlock is not simply a contest between two blocs: for the first time, the path to 61 may run through them.
