Democrat Mary Peltola has widened her lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s US Senate race to 2,517 first-choice votes, after the state Division of Elections released an updated count on Monday. The Alaska Senate race remains uncalled, but the new numbers change the shape of a contest that could still be decided by ranked-choice transfers.
According to the Division of Elections report, timestamped 2:55 p.m. on Monday, Peltola stood at 106,321 votes, or 48.47%, against 103,804 votes, or 47.33%, for Sullivan. Before Monday’s update she led by just 637 votes. The division added about 4,947 ballots, pushing the total counted past 220,000, with roughly 76% of ballots tallied, according to the Associated Press.
Why the lead may not settle it
Neither candidate has crossed 50% of first-choice votes, so under Alaska’s ranked-choice system the race goes to a tabulation on 18 November, when the lowest-placed candidates are eliminated and their voters’ next choices are counted. Republican Gerald Heikes holds about 2.2%, and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired Petersburg teacher who shares the senator’s name, holds about 1.7%, or 3,651 votes — more than the gap between the two leaders.
That is why yesterday’s analysis still matters. Estimates based on the ballots counted so far suggested Sullivan could finish narrowly ahead after transfers, by about 320 to 330 votes, because Heikes and second-Sullivan voters lean towards him. FairVote’s analysis of the preliminary cast-vote record put Sullivan’s transfer gain at about 0.4 points. Those are models, not results, and Monday’s batch — about 68% of which went to Peltola, according to her campaign manager — shows how quickly the first-choice picture can move.
A bigger batch due on Tuesday
A much larger release is due on Tuesday, when tens of thousands of absentee and early ballots are expected to be added. According to the Sullivan campaign’s own memo, the Division of Elections holds about 20,000 early votes and about 27,000 absentee ballots, and Sullivan needs about 49.5% of the two-way vote still to be counted. Mail ballots are due by 13 November and overseas ballots by 18 November, with certification targeted for 25 November.
The legal fight is running alongside the count. Sullivan’s campaign filed a motion on Monday to intervene in Peltola’s lawsuit seeking records for absentee ballots preliminarily rejected by the Division of Elections. President Donald Trump declared on Saturday that Sullivan had won, even though the race remains uncalled.
Sources: Alaska Division of Elections, Associated Press, Anchorage Daily News via Juneau Independent, FairVote, Sullivan campaign memo
