The Bank of England is widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time in more than three years on Thursday 5 November, taking Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4%. Markets and economists are unusually united on the call, with derivatives markets implying roughly a 96% chance of a quarter-point rise.
Why a rise is expected now
UK consumer price inflation rose to 3.5% in September 2026, up from 3.1% in August and well above the Bank’s 2% target, according to the Office for National Statistics, as reported by Morningstar and Money to the Masses. A Reuters poll of 63 economists conducted between 12 and 14 October found 54 expecting a quarter-point rise on 5 November, with a 7–2 vote split predicted. At the September meeting the committee voted 6–3 to hold, with three members already backing a rise to 4%.
What it means for mortgages and savings
Tracker mortgage holders would feel a rise quickly, while those on fixed deals would not see a change until their term ends. Savers, meanwhile, should not assume an automatic lift: as of 3 November, Moneyfacts put the average easy-access savings rate at 2.56% on a £10,000 balance and the average one-year fixed account at 4.47%, both barely above September inflation of 3.5%. Markets are also pricing in three to four further quarter-point rises during 2027, which would take Bank Rate to between 4.75% and 5%, Reuters reported on 2 November.
The warning for borrowers
The decision is announced at noon on Thursday alongside the Bank’s quarterly Monetary Policy Report, with the Governor’s press conference at around 12:30. Anyone remortgaging in 2027 should note the direction of travel: the era of falling UK rates has paused, and the Bank’s own September minutes projected inflation of around 3.75% in the final quarter of 2026 and slightly above 4% in early 2027. Nothing is confirmed until the announcement, but the market has rarely been this sure in advance.
