Novak Djokovic’s hopes of qualifying for the ATP Finals in Turin hang by a thread after he lost to Jan-Lennard Struff 6-7 (4), 7-5, 7-6 (5) in the second round of the Swiss Indoors in Basel on Thursday. The result was reported by Reuters, carried by Wixx and others, and by Tennis Temple, which both confirm the same scoreline and its implications. Djokovic, 39, was playing in Basel for the first time in 15 years, according to Reuters, and suffered his first defeat by Struff in nine meetings, according to the same report. Struff struck 27 aces and saved all six break points he faced, according to Tennis Temple, in a match lasting more than two and a half hours, according to the same report.
A missed chance in the race to Turin
Before Thursday, Djokovic sat 11th in the PIF ATP Live Race to Turin on 2,890 points, according to Tennis Watcher. Rafael Jodar, in ninth place and holding the last qualifying spot following Jannik Sinner’s season-ending knee injury, had 3,209 points, according to the same report. Reuters puts the gap after Basel at 319 points behind ninth-placed Jodar, who currently occupies the final qualifying spot with Sinner not playing in Turin. Jodar had also been eliminated in Basel hours before Djokovic, according to Tennis Temple, handing Djokovic an ideal opportunity to close the gap. Instead, the defeat leaves him 294 points adrift on Tennis Temple’s calculation, or 319 points on Reuters’ calculation — either way, a significant deficit with only one event left.
Paris is now the last chance
Djokovic now has only one real chance to make up the deficit: the Rolex Paris Masters, which begins on November 2, according to Tennis Temple. He is the tournament’s record holder with seven titles, according to Tennis Temple and Reuters, and a title in Paris yields 1,000 Race points, a final 650, a semifinal 400 and a quarterfinal 200, according to Tennis Watcher. For Djokovic to pass Jodar on points alone, he needs to reach the semifinals and hope Jodar exits before the last eight, according to Tennis Watcher. A quarterfinal, worth 200 points, would take Djokovic to 3,090, still short of Jodar’s current total, according to the same report. In practice, Djokovic likely needs a deep run in Paris — and help from Jodar’s early exit.
Struff’s breakthrough win
For Struff, the win ends a long losing run against Djokovic and sends him into a quarterfinal against Nuno Borges, according to Tennis Temple. Struff’s serve-and-attack approach, with 27 aces, according to Tennis Temple, gave Djokovic almost no purchase on return games. At 39, Djokovic remains a formidable competitor, but this defeat shows how thin the margins have become in the race to Turin — and how much now depends on one week in Paris.
