More than 23 million Americans had already cast ballots in the 2026 midterm elections by Friday, with 11 days still to go before Election Day, according to data compiled by the University of Florida’s Election Lab. The early-vote picture gives Democrats a striking head start in the race for control of Congress.
Registered Democrats account for 45 percent of early ballots returned nationwide, compared with 30 percent from Republicans, according to the tracking data. That 15-point gap is far wider than in recent cycles, and it is concentrated in states that have traditionally leaned Republican.
Where the early vote is running hottest
In Georgia, early ballots already represent more than 40 percent of total 2022 turnout, according to the Election Lab figures. Texas sits at 35 percent, North Carolina at 33 percent and Florida at 27 percent, with Michigan and Ohio also recording similarly strong paces.
The figures record ballots returned, not votes for individual candidates, and party registration is not a perfect guide to how a voter actually voted. Still, campaign strategists on both sides treat the early-vote composition as an early signal of enthusiasm and organisation.
What four seats would mean
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reclaim the majority in each chamber of Congress, according to the early-vote analysis. With majorities this narrow, a handful of districts and states could decide which party writes the agenda for the second half of President Donald Trump’s term.
Republicans, meanwhile, will look to Election Day itself, when their voters have historically turned out in larger numbers. The question now is whether the Democratic early-vote edge holds, narrows, or is overtaken when the final ballots are counted on November 3.
Most states and Washington, DC, also offer early in-person voting alongside mail ballots, according to election guidance summarised ahead of the midterms, and voters are being urged to check their local deadlines rather than assume a single national rule. That patchwork is one reason national early-vote totals rise unevenly from state to state, and why campaign teams watch state-by-state returns rather than the national total alone as Election Day approaches.
