Ebenezer, Johnny Depp’s return to big-studio Hollywood, opens on Friday, November 13 — and the box-office tracking has cooled since the autumn. Box Office Theory now puts the opening weekend at $17 million to $24 million, according to SlashFilm, down from BoxOffice Pro’s October long-range forecast of $25 million to $35 million. The firm’s November 6 update is a little warmer, at $19 million to $27 million with a $22 million pinpoint, and says the film is “steadily showing more potential” thanks to ramped-up marketing and family interest.
Against a reported $38 million budget, even the lower range would be a solid start for the Paramount release — especially since the film should be able to hang around through the holiday season, if audiences like what Ti West and Depp have made. Pre-sales remain sturdy, pacing close to Karate Kid: Legends in Box Office Theory’s sample markets.
Depp’s first studio film in eight years
When the film opens on November 13, it will be a test — not just of whether Depp can still sell cinema tickets, but whether Hollywood can restore him to the ranks of mainstream leading men. It is his first big Hollywood studio production in eight years. His subsequent films included Minamata, which made less than $1 million at the global box office, and Jeanne du Barry, whose 2023 Cannes premiere was accompanied by protests.
Paramount has made a point of invoking Depp’s most famous roles: the trailer opens with references to Captain Jack Sparrow, Edward Scissorhands and the Mad Hatter, before announcing “The master of misfits returns.” Depp walked the red carpet at the Whitby Hotel in New York on November 1 for a special screening, with director Ti West and co-stars Andrea Riseborough and Tramell Tillman beside him.
What the early signs say
An August report by the website Puck, based on a test screening in New Jersey, offered an encouraging early indication: the film scored 80 out of 100, compared with a reported historical average of 72, while Depp received a score of 86, with women aged over 35 particularly positive. Test-screening figures are no guarantee of box-office success, and the trailer reaction has split — one Yahoo Entertainment writer said they were shocked by how much they laughed at Depp, while Nerdist called it the year’s worst trailer.
Reviews are not out yet. The embargo lifts at noon on Thursday, November 12, according to Showbiz411, cited by Shortlist, as preview showings begin. The film is a PG-13 take on Charles Dickens’ A Christmas Carol, running just under two hours, and the trailer leans as hard on comedy as on gothic gloom. On Friday, audiences get to decide.
