The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping is now the movie to beat this Thanksgiving. Early box office tracking for the prequel has been climbing fast, and in an exclusive update Deadline reports that the film’s presales are ahead of Universal’s Wicked, with the opening floor now at $80 million or more — up from last weekend’s forecast of $60 million to $70 million, according to FictionHorizon’s report on the Deadline update.
The presales opened on October 28, and trackers Global Box Office and Empire City Box Office estimated the movie could open to more than $100 million, according to the same report. The $100 million figure is a tracker estimate, not a studio projection, and Deadline’s floor of $80 million-plus is the more conservative measure. Either way, the direction of travel is clear: the film’s opening is being revised upward, week by week, as the release approaches.
A broadcast that broke through
The marketing has also broken out of the usual channels. A new Hunger Games broadcast aired on CNN during US Election Night coverage on November 4, according to FictionHorizon — a propaganda video from the fictional government of President Snow, interrupted by a message calling for rebellion. The spot, which also ran on Fox News, turned a midterm election broadcast into a Panem transmission, and it has been widely shared since.
The film needs a big result. Its budget is reported at between $170 million and $200 million, according to FictionHorizon, which makes the opening weekend critical. A $100 million-plus opening would put it on course for a strong run. An $80 million opening would still be a solid start — but the film’s economics demand more than solid.
Ten days to the reaping
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping opens only in theatres, including IMAX, on Friday, November 20, 2026, according to Bee Bulletin, with early premium-format shows on November 18 at 6pm. It is directed by Francis Lawrence, who has directed every Hunger Games film since Catching Fire, from a screenplay by Billy Ray. The story follows a young Haymitch Abernathy, played by Joseph Zada, 24 years before the events of the first Hunger Games, on the morning of the reaping for the 50th Hunger Games — the Second Quarter Quell.
The release calendar helps. The film arrives the week of Thanksgiving, with no direct competition in its lane until the Christmas releases. The presales say the audience is ready. The opening weekend will say whether the $100 million trackers or the $80 million floor was right.
