The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping keeps climbing the tracking charts, and the film now carries an $80 million-plus opening floor with nine days to go before release. Deadline raised its floor for the domestic opening to $80 million or more, up from the $60 million to $70 million range circulating a week earlier, according to reports published on November 10.
The upgrade is driven by advance ticket sales. Deadline reported that presales for the film are the strongest Lionsgate has logged for any release since the pandemic, running ahead of both Universal’s Wicked and the studio’s own Michael, which opened to $97.2 million. That comparison matters because Wicked turned strong presales into a $112.5 million opening, a precedent Deadline itself noted when cautioning that female-driven films can sometimes be front-loaded.
Independent trackers are more bullish still. Global Box Office and Empire City Box Office both put the film above $100 million after tickets went on sale on October 28, while Box Office Theory holds a $105 million-plus forecast with a $116 million pinpoint and a $140 million high end. Boxoffice Pro’s long-range forecast remains the cautious outlier at $55 million to $65 million, a reminder that the tracking range for this film is unusually wide.
Why the range is so wide
The spread reflects how little hard data exists this far out. Tracking models weigh presale pace, social media interest and demographic signals, and this film scores strongly with Gen Z and Millennial moviegoers, according to Box Office Theory. The same firm flags the title as volatile to forecast, and notes that some models are even more bullish than its own $116 million pinpoint.
Prediction markets lean toward the higher end. Polymarket’s opening-weekend contract prices the $105 million-plus bracket at just under 90 percent, with roughly 7 percent more on the $95 million to $105 million range, pointing to a nearly 97 percent chance the film clears $95 million. Kalshi’s market puts its forecast at 76.2 percent, according to the Action Network report.
What is at stake for Lionsgate
The film needs a big result. Its budget is reported at between $170 million and $200 million, with The Numbers tracking it at $185 million, according to multiple reports. It is the sixth film in the Hunger Games series and the second prequel, following The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes in 2023, which opened to $44.6 million.
The release date is November 20, with early-access screenings on Wednesday, November 18. One wild card sits the day before: GTA VI launches on November 19, and the game has already taken an estimated $630 million in digital pre-orders, according to reports. Reviews have not posted yet, and Rotten Tomatoes still lists the Tomatometer as coming soon. The next real signals will be the presale pace, premium-format demand and the size of Thursday previews.
Related reading: Hunger Games Tracking Soars Past $100M for November 20 Opening
