Thursday brings a triple dose of US economic data that could shape expectations for next week’s Federal Reserve decision: weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET, September retail sales and September producer prices. With the Fed meeting on October 28 — six days before the midterms — every data point is getting extra scrutiny.
Initial jobless claims are forecast at around 199,000 for the week ended October 17, matching last week’s 199,000 print (revised from 198,000), with the four-week average at 198,500. Continuing claims stood at 1.71 million — down from 1.93 million a year earlier — painting a picture of a labor market that is cooling but not cracking.
Consumers in focus
September retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% month over month, slowing from August’s strong 1.2% gain. The report matters because consumer spending drives the bulk of US economic activity — a stronger reading would support growth expectations, while a miss would raise slowdown fears. September PPI is forecast at +0.6% monthly, with core PPI at +0.3%, after September CPI came in at 3.7% annual inflation.
Challenger data showed announced layoffs down 20% year over year in September, and year-to-date cuts down 39% — consistent with the low-claims picture of layoffs staying contained even as hiring slows.
Fed countdown
Economists expect the Fed to hold rates on October 28, and steady data would reinforce that call. The next claims report lands October 29, with the October jobs report due November 6 — after the election.
The data deluge follows expectations the Fed holds on October 28 and comes as September inflation hit 3.7% on surging gas prices.
The labor market’s steadiness stands out against the gloom elsewhere. Continuing claims of 1.71 million are down from 1.93 million a year ago, and the four-week average of initial claims sits at just 198,500 — low by historical standards. Challenger’s count of announced layoffs fell 20% year over year in September. The caveat economists repeat: low claims measure layoffs, not hiring. A frozen job market can coexist with low filings if firing and hiring both stall — which is exactly what Thursday’s data will help illuminate.
