New Zealanders vote on Saturday in a general election that final polls put neck and neck, after record early voting saw more than 913,000 people cast ballots in the first seven days of advance voting.
The advance voting figure, reported by Xinhua on November 2, exceeds the number recorded at the same stage of the 2023 election. Voting closes at 7pm on Saturday, November 7, and preliminary results will start appearing on the Electoral Commission’s results website from 7pm that night. Close to four million Kiwis are enrolled to vote.
A race too close to call
Recent polling averages place the incumbent National Party and Labour within a point or two on the party vote, according to election trackers. The PolitPro election trend as of November 6 puts Labour on 28.5 per cent, National on 27.5 per cent, the Greens on 14.5 per cent, NZ First on 10.5 per cent and ACT on 10.2 per cent. Betting markets give National a clear lead in implied probability, reflecting its incumbency under Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and its established coalition arrangements.
National’s path to government relies on its existing coalition partners ACT and NZ First securing enough seats for a majority, while Labour would require support from the Greens and potentially The Opportunities Party. The PolitPro trend suggests the National-ACT-NZ First alliance would hold a wafer-thin majority of 50.0 per cent of seats — a margin so thin that even minor swings could cost it.
Results will take weeks to finalise
Election-night numbers will include only ordinary votes counted at voting places. The Electoral Commission expects to publish official results, including up to 700,000 special votes, on Friday, November 27 — almost three weeks later. Its targets are results from 50 per cent of voting places by 10pm on Saturday and 95 per cent by 11.30pm.
Parties often avoid declaring a final outcome on election night when the race is close, and with the polls this tight, New Zealand could be waiting well beyond Saturday night to learn who governs next.
Sources: Xinhua (via EIN News), 2 Nov 2026; Electoral Commission via Asian Insider, 4 Nov 2026; PolitPro election trend, 6 Nov 2026; Polymarket, 4 Nov 2026.
Related coverage: New Zealand Election on a Knife Edge as Final Polls Put Rivals Neck and Neck
