Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is leading Republican Michael Whatley by double digits in North Carolina’s open Senate race, according to a run of recent public polls, making the contest one of the Democrats’ strongest opportunities to gain Republican-held territory in the 2026 midterms.
A SurveyUSA poll conducted October 7 to 11 found Cooper on 54 percent and Whatley on 40 percent, with about 5 percent undecided. An ActiVote poll conducted October 8 to 20 put Cooper ahead by 13.8 points, at 57 percent to 43 percent, while an Elon University poll found Cooper on 52 percent to Whatley’s 39 percent.
Why independents are decisive
According to ActiVote, Cooper takes 99 percent of Democrats and Whatley takes 94 percent of Republicans, with the two parties making up about equal shares of the likely electorate. Independents favour Cooper by 65 percent to 35 percent, which is what puts him ahead, the pollster said.
Cooper also leads among rural, suburban and urban voters, voters under 65, women, Black and Latino voters, and college-educated voters, according to ActiVote. Whatley leads among voters aged 65 and older, men and White voters.
What is at stake
The seat is open because the Republican incumbent is retiring, and it could help determine control of the US Senate for the second half of President Donald Trump’s term. Decision Desk HQ’s October 21 projection gives Democrats a 56 percent chance of capturing the Senate overall, with a narrow 51-seat majority.
North Carolina has voted Republican in recent presidential elections, but Cooper won statewide office repeatedly as governor, and his personal popularity is central to the Democratic campaign. Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman, is counting on late-deciding voters and a strong Election Day turnout to close the gap before November 3.
Cooper’s statewide record is central to the Democratic argument in North Carolina, where voters have repeatedly backed him for governor even while voting Republican in presidential races. Whatley, by contrast, is running as a party organiser and former national committee chairman, arguing that the Senate majority itself is on the ballot. The contrast gives North Carolina voters a clear choice, and it explains why national money and attention have flowed into a race that could tip the Senate.
