AAA projects 81.5 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home for Thanksgiving between Tuesday, November 24 and Monday, November 30 — a whisker below last year’s 81.6 million, ending a three-year streak of record holiday travel that began in 2023.
The 0.1 percent dip, about 121,000 fewer travellers, comes from AAA’s 2026 Thanksgiving travel forecast, prepared with S&P Global Market Intelligence in the week of October 12. AAA blames record-high fuel prices in part: August, September and October each set new monthly records at the pump, and the national average for regular petrol stood at $4.07 a gallon on November 6, against $3.08 a year earlier.
Most Will Still Drive
Road trips will again dominate the holiday. AAA expects 72.9 million people to travel by car, down from 73.1 million last year — nearly 90 percent of all Thanksgiving travellers. Air travel is also set to edge lower, with 5.96 million people projected to take domestic flights, a fall of 0.2 percent, while round-trip domestic airfare booked for the holiday averages about $800, roughly 17 percent more than last year.
Buses, trains and cruises are the one mode growing: AAA projects 2.6 million Americans will use them, a 4.1 percent increase from last year.
When to Leave — and When Not To
Traffic-data firm INRIX, AAA’s partner on the forecast, expects the busiest outbound driving on Tuesday and Wednesday before the holiday, and the heaviest return traffic on Sunday and Monday, with the worst congestion in the afternoon and early evening. Its best times to drive are Tuesday before 1 p.m., Wednesday before noon, Friday before noon, and Saturday and Sunday before 11 a.m. Thanksgiving Day itself should see minimal traffic.
One consolation for drivers: the national average price of petrol on Thanksgiving Day has never been above $4 a gallon — the highest was $3.58 in 2022. AAA also says it answered more than half a million roadside calls last Thanksgiving for flat tyres, dead batteries, fuel delivery, lockouts and tows, so a pre-trip check of tyres, battery and fuel is worth the ten minutes. For the skies, see our report on American Airlines planning its biggest Thanksgiving travel day since the pandemic, and for fuel costs, gas prices falling to $3.91.
