The Thanksgiving turkey is about to get more expensive. Wholesale turkey prices are forecast to jump 29% ahead of the holiday, with the USDA’s October outlook putting prices around $1.76 per pound — up sharply from $1.36 in 2025, according to market analyses. For families, that means the centerpiece bird could cost several dollars more than last year.
The silver lining: grocers traditionally use turkeys as loss leaders, so retail discounts should soften the blow for shoppers who time it right.
Why Prices Are Climbing
Analysts point to a mix of higher production costs and strong demand. Turkey producers face the same input inflation hitting the rest of the food chain — feed, labor, transport — and wholesale markets are passing it through ahead of the year’s biggest turkey-buying week.
The 29% jump is a wholesale figure, which matters: retail prices won’t necessarily rise by the same amount, because supermarkets routinely sell turkeys below cost to pull shoppers through the door.
How to Beat the Increase
Watch for the loss-leader ads. Chains typically slash turkey prices in the two weeks before Thanksgiving — sometimes below $1 a pound with a minimum purchase — precisely because wholesale costs are high and they need the foot traffic.
Buy early if you have freezer space, and don’t overlook frozen birds: they’re cheaper than fresh and, thawed properly, just as good. The wholesale market may be up 29%, but the savvy shopper doesn’t have to pay it.
Shoppers have more leverage than the wholesale number suggests. Frozen turkeys are consistently cheaper than fresh — often by a dollar or more per pound — and properly thawed (24 hours per four pounds in the fridge), they’re indistinguishable on the plate. Retailers typically launch their deepest turkey discounts in the ten days before Thanksgiving, sometimes dropping below $1 a pound with a minimum grocery purchase to drive traffic. If you have freezer space, buying during that window and thawing the week of the holiday is the single best money-saving move. And consider size: a 12-pound bird feeds eight generously — oversized turkeys just mean expensive leftovers.
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