British shoppers are set for a record £28.52 billion of online festive spending, according to Adobe’s forecast published this week — but not every survey agrees, and one says spending will fall by a third.
Adobe expects UK online sales of £28.52 billion between November 1 and December 31, up 6.2% on last year, with total fourth-quarter e-commerce reaching £40 billion. The Cyber Weekend from November 27 to 30 is forecast at £4.05 billion, and Black Friday itself at £1.24 billion, up 7.1% and still the biggest online shopping day of the year. Discounts are expected to peak at 25% off during Cyber Weekend, and AI-driven shopping traffic is up 214% on last year.
A PayPal survey of 2,000 UK adults, also published this week, puts expected Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending at £6.7 billion, with 45% of Brits planning to shop the sales. Nearly half of shoppers have waited two months or more for a specific item. Beauty and fragrance top the wish lists at 44%, followed by fashion at 39% and toys at 38%.
One survey says the opposite
A competing survey tells a very different story. Omnisend, surveying 1,076 UK shoppers through Cint in August, found shoppers expect to spend £267 on average over Black Friday and Cyber Monday — down 32% from £390 last year — putting total UK spending at £9.9 billion, also down 32%.
The two forecasts cannot both be right. Adobe measures actual online spending; Omnisend measures what shoppers say they intend to spend. The gap is a reminder that surveys of intentions and forecasts of sales are different things — and that the truth will only be known when the tills stop ringing.
Shoppers are treating themselves
A Samsung survey of 2,000 UK shoppers found people expect to spend £304.30 on themselves this Black Friday, against £133.97 last year — up £170.33. More than a third (35%) plan to buy something for themselves, and 32% say they deserve a reward. Fashion leads the self-gifting list at 25%, followed by tech at 23% and beauty at 20%. Black Friday itself falls on November 27, with Cyber Monday on November 30, and the Cyber Weekend from November 27 to 30 is forecast at £4.05 billion online. For shoppers, the conflicting forecasts are a reminder to check price history before buying: a 25% discount is only a bargain if the price was not raised first, and the deepest cuts are usually held for the weekend itself.
