US early voting has hit a record 47.9 million ballots before the November 3 midterm elections, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, surpassing the previous midterm early-voting record with days still to go. The Election Lab had recorded 47,922,669 early votes nationwide by midday on Friday, October 30, according to figures cited by the Associated Press and Agence France-Presse.
That total already beats the roughly 45.9 million early votes cast before Election Day in 2022, the previous midterm high. Measured five days before Election Day, more than 10 million additional voters had taken part this year compared with the same point in 2022, according to AP reporting of the figures. With four days of voting still to run at that point, the final early total will climb further.
Texas and Georgia drive the surge
Texas alone had passed six million early votes by Wednesday, October 28, with in-person turnout running about 50 percent ahead of the same stage in 2022, according to official figures cited in the coverage. Georgia set its own midterm early-voting record, with more than 2.5 million ballots cast as its window closed, while sharp percentage rises were also recorded in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Kansas and South Carolina.
University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald, who heads the Election Lab, pointed to rising participation among Black and Hispanic voters in states that report racial and ethnic data, with particularly strong turnout in heavily Hispanic communities along the Texas-Mexico border, according to the reporting.
A lead that is not a prediction
In states that record party registration, registered Democrats account for about 44 percent of early voters, against 31 percent for Republicans and 25 percent unaffiliated or minor-party voters, according to the Election Lab figures. Analysts caution, however, that registration does not reveal which candidates any voter supported, and tens of millions more Americans are expected to vote on Tuesday itself.
Nor does a record early vote necessarily mean record overall turnout: some voters may simply be casting ballots earlier than in previous elections rather than adding to the total. The surge is concentrated in competitive Senate states, and Election Day returns can still shift outcomes, as Republicans have historically recorded stronger participation on the day in some recent elections.
