Seventeen House races are still uncalled five days after the midterm elections, with Democrats on 254 seats and Republicans on 164, and the final shape of the next Congress will not be settled for weeks — through certification, recounts, ranked-choice tabulation and two runoffs.
Of the 435 House races, 418 had been called by 2:58 a.m. EST on Sunday, 8 November, according to live results: Democrats 254, Republicans 164. Counting was still under way in Florida’s 4th district, North Carolina’s 3rd, Louisiana’s 2nd, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, South Carolina, Tennessee and Washington, among others. The count has moved since Saturday — NBC News had called 252 seats for Democrats and 162 for Republicans, with 21 still to be called, as of 02:27 ET on 7 November — and a New York Times projection put the Democrats’ final total at 257 to 178.
The Senate picture is nearly as open, with Alaska and Mississippi still uncalled and Democrats holding at least 54 seats after flipping seven Republican-held seats — Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina and Maine — while Republicans flipped none.
The calendar that settles it
The next step comes on Monday, 9 November, when ranked-choice tabulation begins in Maine’s 2nd district. The Republican, former governor Paul LePage, finished just under 50% of the vote, and the Democrat, Matt Dunlap, has conceded — but Maine law requires the tabulation to run because no candidate cleared half the vote. On Friday, 13 November, Mississippi’s counties certify their results after reviewing affidavit and late mail ballots, in a Senate race where Democrat Scott Colom leads by 2,574 votes and the state has no recount law.
On Wednesday, 18 November, Alaska counts its last ballots and runs its ranked-choice tabulation for the Senate seat, the governorship and the state’s House seat, in a Senate race where Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Dan Sullivan by 637 votes. On Thursday, 3 December, Mississippi’s secretary of state declares the final Senate result, and Washington and California certify their results — Washington with an automatic recount if a race is under 2,000 votes and 0.5%. On Saturday, 12 December, Louisiana holds runoffs for two House seats, LA-5 and LA-6. The 120th Congress convenes on Sunday, 3 January.
Why the tail matters
The outstanding races will not change who controls either chamber — Democrats have already passed the 218 seats needed in the House and the 51 needed in the Senate — but they will decide the size of the majorities, and with it how much room the new leadership has. A 254-seat House majority is comfortable; a 257-seat one, as the Times projection suggests, is more so. And in Mississippi and Alaska, the final margins will decide whether the Senate ends at 54-46 or 56-44 for the Democrats.
The lame-duck Congress returns on Monday facing a 11 December funding deadline. Until the last race is called, the map of the next Congress is still being drawn — one county certification at a time.
Related coverage: Democrats Reach 254 House Seats as Final Counts Drag On | Lame-Duck Congress Returns Monday Facing December 11 Deadline
