Brent crude has posted its steepest weekly decline in years, settling at $98.32 a barrel on Friday after a week in which hopes of a US-Iran settlement and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz drained the war premium from oil — even as fresh tanker attacks put a floor under the slide.
Brent crude for January delivery settled up 0.03% at $98.32 a barrel on Friday, and West Texas Intermediate for December rose 0.3% to $90.83, according to Rigzone, citing Bloomberg. But the front-month contract fell about 13% over the week, the biggest weekly drop since 2022 according to Bloomberg — Ireland’s broadcaster RTE described the move as the biggest weekly drop since 2020, and the precise comparison depends on the contract and benchmark used. Based on settlement prices, the January Brent contract fell from $113.43 on 30 October to $98.32, trading in a range of about $19 since Monday.
The slide was concentrated in the first half of the week. Prices fell about 8% on Wednesday alone, reaching their lowest level in two months, after Democratic gains in the US midterm elections fed hopes that the war between the United States, Israel and Iran could wind down, and after Bloomberg reported that Washington and Tehran were moving closer to a breakthrough. Tehran wants Washington to lift its blockade, ease sanctions and unfreeze assets before it fully reopens Hormuz.
Tanker attacks slow the fall
Prices rebounded on Thursday, when Brent jumped $3.67, or 3.9%, to $98.29, after reports of attacks on tankers. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said tankers had caught fire while using unauthorised routes through the Strait of Hormuz, and the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency said attacks on shipping were running close to a record pace. On Friday, January Brent futures rose 1.31% to $99.58 a barrel in early trading, after briefly crossing $100, and WTI gained 0.95% to $91.38 — although both benchmarks remained on course for weekly losses of around 12%, according to in-progress estimates.
The market is now trading largely on headlines from the diplomatic track. Eurasia Group put the probability of renewed US strikes at 60% and of a deal at 10%, and said escalation could push Brent to $110-125. With Brent now around $98, prices have fallen more than $25 from the 2026 high of about $126 reached at the end of April. JPMorgan estimated on 4 November that supply exceeded demand by 1.1 million barrels a day in September, and analysts said oil shipments through the strait were running below 60% of capacity.
A market priced on hope
The week’s trading shows how much of the war premium has already left the market: crude’s decline from about $118 a barrel in late October reflects a bet that the Democratic victory and Qatari mediation could bring Washington and Tehran closer to a settlement.
Related coverage: Brent Ends Week Down 16% as Iran Deal Bets Clash With Attacks | Trump Launches Project Freedom to Escort Ships Through Hormuz
