Betting markets are giving Democrats overwhelming odds to win control of Congress in the November 3 midterms. On the Betfair Exchange, Democrats are priced at 1.1 (1/10) — implying a 90% chance — to take the House, and 1.57 (4/7), or 64%, to win the Senate, according to the exchange’s October 20 update.
That puts Democrats in a marginally better position than a week ago in the House betting, while the Senate picture is unchanged. “Both houses massively favour the Democrats,” the Betfair analysis noted, warning that Republicans are “leaving it late” if the races are to narrow.
Kansas in play, Texas money flowing
The most striking detail: the Kansas Senate race is “unexpectedly tight.” No Democrat has won a Senate seat in Kansas since 1932, yet Republicans are only 1.6 (8/13) to hold it against a Democratic price of 2.56 (8/5). Trump spoke for over 90 minutes in Kansas this week trying to shore up the race.
In Texas, Elon Musk has reportedly been pouring funds into the race to help Republican Ken Paxton — but Democrats are 1.73 (8/11) favorites on Betfair to win there, a remarkable position in a state Republicans have long dominated.
2028 lookahead
The exchange also makes Vice President JD Vance the 5.5 (9/2) favorite to win the 2028 presidential election. For now, though, the market’s message is blunt: with Trump’s approval at record lows and early voting breaking records, bettors expect a Democratic wave.
The odds align with the NYT/Siena poll showing Democrats up 11 points — though models still favor Paxton in Texas despite Talarico’s polling lead.
The polling backdrop explains the odds. A Pew Research Center survey found just 30% of Americans approving of Trump’s performance, with 68% disapproving, and 44% of registered voters calling their congressional vote a vote against the president. Democrats also show higher engagement and motivation to vote. But strategists warn that betting markets can misread turnout — and with Republicans holding structural advantages in the Senate map, the 64% Senate price may prove the softer of the two numbers.
