More than 54 million Americans have already cast ballots ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections, according to reports published on 2 November, and national polling gives Democrats a clear lead on the generic congressional ballot. The generic ballot lead does not decide individual races, but it frames a contest in which Democrats are aiming to retake Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s second term.
A RealClearPolling average of surveys conducted through 30 October put Democrats ahead of Republicans by 52 per cent to 43.1 per cent on the generic ballot, an advantage of 8.9 points. An NBC News survey conducted from 28 to 30 October found Democrats ahead by 52 per cent to 45 per cent, while an Emerson College poll conducted from 24 to 26 October put the gap at 10 points, according to reports of the surveys.
The generic ballot measures nationwide preference for congressional candidates rather than support in individual districts. A national lead therefore does not translate directly into a matching number of House seats, because district boundaries and local races decide the outcome seat by seat.
Early voting already at record pace
The early voting total of more than 54 million ballots, reported on Monday, underlines how much of the election is already decided before polling day itself. Campaigns on both sides spent the final weekend chasing the remaining voters, with Trump urging supporters to re-elect Republican candidates and Democrats arguing that voters dissatisfied with the cost of living should hand Congress to the opposition.
In the House, Democrats need a net gain of three seats to secure the 218 seats required for a majority. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report’s latest ratings, updated on Friday, place 222 districts in categories favouring Democrats and 195 favouring Republicans, with 18 classified as toss-ups, according to reports.
What to watch on Tuesday night
Results are expected later on Tuesday night or early on Wednesday morning, though close races may take longer. The Senate map, the House toss-ups concentrated in Texas, California, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, New York and Pennsylvania, and the governor races will together determine whether Trump governs his final two years with Republican majorities or faces sustained Democratic oversight. The early votes already banked mean the first results on Tuesday night will reflect a large share of the electorate before polling-day ballots are fully counted.
