The midterm elections are one day away, and the final Senate battleground polls point to a fight that is far closer than the map suggested a year ago. The midterm polls show Democrats leading in five Republican-held Senate states, a result that, if repeated at the ballot box, would put control of the chamber within reach.
According to the New York Times/Siena University polls released ahead of Tuesday’s vote, Democratic candidates lead in Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Alaska, while Iowa is effectively tied. Democrats also lead in Michigan, the one Democratic-held seat among the seven states surveyed. The surveys were conducted from 23 October to 1 November, according to reports of the findings.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 50 per cent to 43 per cent, according to the Times/Siena survey. In Kansas, Democrat Chris Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 49 per cent to 44 per cent. Both states have long been Republican strongholds at Senate level: Democrats have not won a Senate race in Texas since 1988, and not in Kansas since 1932, according to reports of the polling.
What the polls say about Trump
The same surveys found just 38 per cent of likely voters across the seven states approving of President Donald Trump’s job performance. That figure matches the broader national picture reported by NBC News, which put Trump’s approval at 38 per cent, with 60 per cent disapproving.
Democrats also hold a nine-point advantage over Republicans on the cost of living across the battleground states, leading on that issue in all seven states surveyed, according to the Times/Siena results. Cost pressures have been the dominant theme of the closing days of the campaign, ahead of health care and the war with Iran.
Why the Senate arithmetic matters
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot on 3 November. Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, against 47 held by Democrats and independents who caucus with them. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach a 51-seat majority.
NBC News Decision Desk ratings identify five Senate races as toss-ups. Polls are snapshots, not results, and several of the leads reported on Monday sit within or near the margin of error. But the direction is consistent across pollsters: the final weekend surveys show a Democratic advantage in states where Republicans expected comfortable wins. Tuesday will test whether that advantage survives contact with actual voters.
