US mortgage rates are holding at 7.20% on Monday, unchanged from Sunday, as the market waits for Tuesday’s inflation report — the last big data point before the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. Bankrate’s real-time national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage stood at 7.20% as of 6:30 a.m. on Monday, November 9, with the annual percentage rate at 7.27%, according to Bankrate’s survey of lenders. The 30-year fixed FHA rate was 6.94%, with an APR of 6.98%, and jumbo 30-year loans were 7.32%, with an APR of 7.35%. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 6.79% APR. The figures sit just above Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, which had the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.18% on Thursday, November 5 — down from 7.24% the week before, and the third straight weekly fall. The 15-year fixed rate was 6.57% in that survey.
Tuesday’s inflation report is the test
The survey published on Thursday came before Friday’s jobs report, which showed employers adding 165,000 jobs in October, far above the 65,000 expected. That report pushed traders to raise the odds of another Federal Reserve rate rise in December to about 75% to 80% — and daily rate sheets on Friday had the 30-year rate near 7.1%, suggesting the downward drift may not last. Tuesday’s consumer inflation report, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, is the last inflation reading before the Fed’s December 8–9 meeting. Forecasters expect headline prices up 0.3% on the month and core prices up 0.2%, with no annual rate published this time because October 2025 prices were never collected during last year’s government shutdown. A hot reading would strengthen the case for a December rise and could push mortgage rates higher; a cool one could yet stay the Fed’s hand.
What it costs a buyer
For a buyer borrowing $400,000 over 30 years, the difference between 7.20% and the 6.22% of a year ago is roughly $260 a month — about $3,100 a year — which is why even small weekly moves matter to households weighing a purchase. Freddie Mac’s survey covers a sample of lenders across the country and is the benchmark most quoted by the industry, while Bankrate’s daily average reflects live lender quotes and moves faster. Even at 7.20%, the rate remains well above the sub-3% levels of 2021 — but for buyers who have waited through two years of higher rates, three consecutive weekly falls are the first sustained improvement in months. Yet cheaper rates have not yet brought buyers back: in the week ending October 30, mortgage applications fell 1.2% even as the Mortgage Bankers Association’s 30-year rate dropped to 7.30%, its lowest since September. Purchase applications were down 2% on the week and 19% year on year, while refinancing was flat and 60% down on a year ago. The Mortgage Bankers Association expects the 30-year rate to average 7.3% in the final quarter of 2026 and to stay above 7% through 2027.
