New Zealand’s newest political force, the Opportunity Party, could decide who becomes the country’s next prime minister, after the November 7 general election produced no clear winner and left the two big parties short of a majority. The development is the key new angle in a count that is still under way, with nearly 400,000 special votes yet to be counted.
Opportunity, led by 38-year-old business consultant and political newcomer Qiulae Wong, is unaligned with either bloc, and Wong has said she could work with either side to form a government. Wong’s pledges of evidence-based centrism and an end to partisan bickering secured seven seats for Opportunity on Saturday’s results, on 5.96 percent of the party vote. If the incumbent coalition loses its majority on the special vote count, Opportunity would hold the balance of power and decide who the next prime minister and government is.
A knife-edge parliament
In preliminary results, Labour won the party vote with 29.36 percent to National’s 29.21 percent, a difference of just 3,650 votes — the first time both major parties have polled under 30 percent. But National won 42 electorates, seven more than its party vote share earns, creating an overhang of seven seats. Te Pāti Māori won five seats on 0.57 percent, an overhang of four. Those overhangs created a 131-seat Parliament, in which 66 seats are needed to govern.
Seats for National, 42, ACT, 13, and New Zealand First, 12, hold 67 seats — one above the majority threshold. Labour, 36, the Greens, 16, and Te Pāti Māori, 5, hold 57 seats. Combined with Opportunity’s seven, that would take the left’s total to 64 seats, still two short. About 399,365 special votes, 14 percent of the total vote, will be counted by November 27. Special votes have cost National two seats at each of the last three elections, and in a 131-seat Parliament a two-seat swing would cost the coalition its current majority.
Four seats to watch
There are four close electorates that could change hands on the special vote count. In Wairarapa, National’s Mike Butterick leads Labour’s Kieran McAnulty by just 139 votes. The Electoral Commission estimates total votes, including ordinary and special ballots, at 2,831,768, with the preliminary count covering 2,432,403 ordinary votes. The official count began on November 8 and is expected to take 20 days, with official results due on Friday, November 27, and the return of the writ on December 3.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins have both said they will wait for the official result before formal coalition negotiations. Luxon said National had a pathway to forming the next government but called the contest too close to call. The incumbent administration remains in caretaker mode while the result is resolved, and if no government can be formed, New Zealand could face a fresh vote.
Related reading: New Zealand Special Votes Count Begins as Government Waits Until November 27 and New Zealand Election: The Special Votes Waiting Game
