Johnny Depp’s Ebenezer is trending up at the box office, with Box Office Theory raising its forecast to a $22 million pinpoint for the opening weekend, up from its earlier $17 million to $24 million range. The film opens on Friday, November 13, from Paramount, and it is Depp’s first major studio lead since 2018.
The film is steadily showing more potential as an early holiday season performer, according to Box Office Theory’s November 6 forecast, thanks to ramped-up marketing and tracking metrics highlighting potential among families. Pre-sales remain sturdy, with the film pacing close to Karate Kid: Legends in the tracker’s sample markets.
A smaller payday for a big comeback
Depp was paid $5 million for the film, a fraction of what he earned on prior studio movies, with the promise of bonuses tied to box office performance, according to Variety, as reported by multiple outlets on November 10. The production budget was $38 million, and marketing expenses were around $50 million, including a surprise appearance at San Diego Comic-Con where Depp appeared in character and threw handfuls of candy to attendees.
An April 2026 study by the National Research Group suggests his fans never turned on him, according to the reports, and placed him among the top ten actors most likely to draw audiences to a new cinema release, ahead of Tom Hanks. Test screenings scored in the 80s, with Depp himself at 90 among women over 35, according to Puck, as cited in the Box Office Watch preview.
What the tracking says now
Boxoffice Pro’s long-range forecast put the opening at $25 million to $35 million in October, while Box Office Theory’s newer range is $19 million to $27 million, with a $22 million pinpoint and a domestic total forecast as high as $141 million. The film is tracking a modest debut of about $20 million domestically and another $20 million overseas from 63 markets, according to the reports.
Directed by Ti West, the horror filmmaker behind the X trilogy, Ebenezer is a darker, horror-tinged retelling of Charles Dickens’ A Christmas Carol, with Depp as Scrooge. Reviews are not out yet, with the embargo lifting at noon on Thursday, November 12, according to Showbiz411, as cited in the Shortlist guide. The calendar gives it one clean weekend before The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping arrives on November 20.
Related reading: Ebenezer Tracking Cools to $17-24M as Depp Comeback Nears
